NCLH breaks back below 200-day moving average
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NCLH finished the week -0.66% lower at 52.46 after losing $0.97 (-1.82%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCLH as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.56 (1.07%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.44. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for NCLH.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern and the Southern Doji which are both known as bullish patterns and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
Norwegian Cruise closed back below the 200-day moving average at 53.01. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on February 7th, NCLH lost -3.43% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Norwegian Cruise. Out of 225 times, NCLH closed higher 56.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.44% with an average market move of 0.47%.