NCLH still stuck within tight trading range
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NCLH ended the week 3.21% higher at 54.28 after gaining $0.56 (1.04%) today, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.16%). Closing above Thursday's high at 53.91, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.63 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCLH as at Jun 14, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.94 (1.75%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.15. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NCLH. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 52.53 and 54.54 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 54.30 (R1), Norwegian Cruise closed below it after spiking up to 54.54 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on June 7th, NCLH actually gained 2.36% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 53.11 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's high at 54.87, upside momentum might accelerate should the share mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Norwegian Cruise. Out of 176 times, NCLH closed higher 53.98% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of 0.83%.