NBL dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
Noble Energy Inc. (NBL) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 10, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NBL finished the week -5.65% lower at 9.01 after gaining $0.37 (4.28%) today, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (1.05%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NBL as at Jul 10, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.59 (6.9%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.67. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NBL.
Regardless of a weak opening the market managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on June 25th, NBL actually lost -7.42% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 8.56 (S1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 9.38 where further buy stops might get triggered. Trading close to May's low at 7.73 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Engulfing Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Noble Energy. Out of 61 times, NBL closed lower 54.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 55.74% with an average market move of -0.14%.