NBL breaks below Monday's low
Noble Energy Inc. (NBL) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 07, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NBL finished Tuesday at 8.94 losing $0.51 (-5.4%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-1.08%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 9.26, Noble Energy confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.34 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NBL as at Jul 07, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.40 (4.31%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.72. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NBL.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on June 23rd, NBL lost -6.09% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 8.56 (S1).
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 8.26 where further sell stops might get triggered. Trading close to May's low at 7.73 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Short Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Noble Energy. Out of 76 times, NBL closed higher 53.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 53.95% with an average market move of 0.41%.