NAVI runs into sellers around 14.82 for the third day in a row


Navient Corporation (NAVI) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team

Highlights

NAVI breaks below key technical support level
NAVI runs into sellers around 14.82 for the third day in a row
NAVI finds support at 20-day moving average
NAVI closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
NAVI breaks below Thursday's low

Overview

Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NAVI finished the week 4.0% higher at 14.57 after losing $0.17 (-1.15%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 14.62, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.13 below it intraday.

Daily Candlestick Chart (NAVI as at Feb 14, 2020):

Daily technical analysis candlestick chart for Navient Corporation (NAVI) as at Feb 14, 2020

Friday's trading range has been $0.33 (2.24%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.39. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NAVI.

Despite a strong opening the share closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on February 4th, NAVI actually gained 1.81% on the following trading day.

After trading as low as 14.49 during the day, the stock found support at the 20-day moving average at 14.51. Prices broke below the key technical support level at 14.64 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. Navient ran into sellers again today around 14.82 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 14.87 in the prior session and at 14.83 two days ago.

The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.

Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 14.87 where further buy stops could get activated.

Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Navient. Out of 97 times, NAVI closed lower 58.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.95% with an average market move of -1.55%.


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