NAB.AX stuck within tight trading range
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NAB.AX finished Wednesday at 24.39 gaining $0.18 (0.74%), strongly outperforming the ASX 50 (-0.44%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NAB.AX as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.31 (1.27%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.39. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NAB.AX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 24.08 and 24.63 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on January 25th, NAB.AX actually lost -1.94% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 24.08 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 24.62 (R1). After having been unable to move above 24.54 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 24.56.
Although the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 24.08 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for National Australia. Out of 656 times, NAB.AX closed higher 51.07% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.18% with an average market move of 0.31%.