NAB.AX closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NAB.AX finished the week 2.38% higher at 24.55 after edging lower $0.05 (-0.2%) today on low volume, but still slightly outperforming the ASX 50 (-0.34%). Trading $0.18 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, NAB.AX actually gained 0.91% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NAB.AX as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.31 (1.26%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.39. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NAB.AX.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 24.62 (R1).
Though National Australia is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 24.34 where further sell stops could get activated. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test December's close-by high at 24.96.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for National Australia. Out of 518 times, NAB.AX closed higher 55.02% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.46%.