NAB.AX runs into sellers again around 25.02
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 09, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NAB.AX ended the week -1.23% lower at 24.90 after losing $0.03 (-0.12%) today, slightly underperforming the ASX 50 (-0.04%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NAB.AX as at Nov 09, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.32 (1.28%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.37. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for NAB.AX.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hammer. The last time a Hammer showed up on October 10th, NAB.AX actually lost -2.55% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 24.62 (S1). After having been unable to move above 25.06 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 25.02.
Although the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 24.62 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 24.52, downside momentum might speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hammer" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for National Australia. Out of 12 times, NAB.AX closed lower 75.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 41.67% with an average market move of -0.07%.