MUSA closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MUSA finished the week -1.0% lower at 105.08 after losing $0.39 (-0.37%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.75 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, MUSA actually gained 0.41% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MUSA as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.63 (1.54%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.69. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MUSA. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 104.21 and 106.96 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 104.44 (S1). The market was sold again around 106.33 after having seen highs at 106.25, 106.06 and 106.01 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The share shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 106.96 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 104.44 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 100.58, downside momentum might accelerate should Murphy USA break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to February's low at 102.36, downside momentum could speed up should MUSA mark new lows for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Murphy USA. Out of 273 times, MUSA closed higher 58.24% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 1.01%.