MUR closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, MUR finished the week 0.5% higher at 22.06 after losing $0.31 (-1.39%) today on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 22.07, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.28 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MUR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.57 (2.56%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.76. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MUR.
Although the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 21.42 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Murphy Oil. Out of 410 times, MUR closed higher 53.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 51.95% with an average market move of 0.13%.