MTN dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 01, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MTN ended Monday at 193.74 losing $4.59 (-2.31%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.38%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Friday's low at 194.15, Vail Resorts confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.41 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MTN as at Jun 01, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $6.08 (3.07%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $7.89. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MTN.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The stock closed back below the 100-day moving average at 194.48 for the first time since May 22nd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on February 25th, MTN lost -4.49% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 198.75 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 198.82.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) below 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Vail Resorts. Out of 250 times, MTN closed higher 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.80% with an average market move of 1.43%.