MTN closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, MTN ended the week 15.4% higher at 194.94 after gaining $2.05 (1.06%) today on low volume, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Today's close at 194.94 marks the highest recorded closing price since March 6th. Trading up to $2.49 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 193.39, Vail Resorts confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $1.79 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MTN as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $4.51 (2.33%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $8.79. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MTN.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bearish Hikkake Pattern showed up on May 7th, MTN actually gained 3.81% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 196.08 (R1).
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 174.75.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 196.08 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vail Resorts. Out of 783 times, MTN closed higher 52.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.88% with an average market move of 1.03%.