MTN unable to break through key resistance level
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 10, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MTN ended Thursday at 214.63 losing $0.84 (-0.39%), underperforming the S&P 500 (0.45%). Trading up to $3.88 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MTN as at Jan 10, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $7.65 (3.58%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $8.93. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for MTN.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on December 11, 2018, MTN actually lost -5.39% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 214.91 (R1), the stock closed below it after spiking up to 217.18 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
While the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 206.00 where further sell stops might get activated. 2018's low at 200.29 is within reach and we could see further downside momentum should Vail Resorts break out beyond.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish High-Wave Candle" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Vail Resorts. Out of 37 times, MTN closed higher 56.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.46% with an average market move of 1.26%.