MTG finds support at 200-day moving average
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MTG finished the week -4.49% lower at 13.61 after losing $0.20 (-1.45%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 13.61 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 18, 2019.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MTG as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.25 (1.82%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.26. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for MTG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 13.54 during the day, the market found support at the 200-day moving average at 13.57. The last time this happened on January 27th, MTG gained 0.80% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 13.80 (R1).
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for MGIC Investment. Out of 385 times, MTG closed higher 58.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.44% with an average market move of 1.67%.