MTB declines to lowest close since November 10, 2017
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, MTB ended the week -5.82% lower at 158.52 after losing $1.93 (-1.2%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 158.52 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 10, 2017. Closing below Thursday's low at 160.39, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $5.03 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MTB as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $6.69 (4.13%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.05. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for MTB.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 167.57.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for M&T Bank. Out of 53 times, MTB closed higher 56.60% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.38% with an average market move of 0.22%.