MSCI closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
MSCI Inc (MSCI) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 15, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, MSCI finished Tuesday at 346.00 gaining $3.63 (1.06%), outperforming the S&P 500 (0.52%). Trading $1.93 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MSCI as at Sep 15, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $4.19 (1.21%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $9.29. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MSCI. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 337.35 and 353.11 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern and the Bearish Spinning Top which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Hikkake Pattern showed up on August 31st, MSCI actually gained 1.15% on the following trading day.
The share ran into sellers again today around 348.77 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 347.12 in the previous session and at 348.02 two days ago.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 353.11 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 337.35 where further sell stops might get activated. Trading close to July's low at 329.83 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for MSCI. Out of 199 times, MSCI closed higher 55.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.33% with an average market move of 1.58%.