MRO unable to break through key resistance level
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, MRO finished the month 14.61% higher at 6.12 after gaining $0.16 (2.68%) today on low volume, notably outperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing above Monday's high at 5.99, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.16 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MRO as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.35 (5.92%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.42. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MRO. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5.55 and 6.20 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Marathon Oil managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 6.03 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 23rd, MRO actually lost -8.53% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 6.15 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 6.15 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 6.44 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Marathon Oil. Out of 384 times, MRO closed lower 54.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.21% with an average market move of -1.40%.