MRO closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MRO ended the week -3.83% lower at 16.05 after losing $0.17 (-1.05%) today on high volume, but still significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Trading $0.40 higher after the open, Marathon Oil was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MRO as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.11 (6.63%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.75. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MRO.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on November 12th, MRO actually lost -4.58% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 15.86 (S1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 15.60 where further sell stops might get activated. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test November's close-by low at 15.49.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Marathon Oil. Out of 494 times, MRO closed higher 54.66% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.04% with an average market move of 0.61%.