MRO closes within prior day's range
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MRO finished the week -12.35% lower at 20.52 after gaining $0.56 (2.81%) today, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MRO as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.69 (3.35%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.72. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for MRO.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Homing Pigeon and the Takuri Line which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 20.01 earlier during the day, Marathon Oil bounced off the key technical support level at 20.25 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 19.92 in the previous session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 20.01. The last time this happened on Tuesday, MRO actually lost -7.72% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 22.34.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 19.92 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 19.83.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Homing Pigeon" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Marathon Oil. Out of 31 times, MRO closed higher 67.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 54.84% with an average market move of 0.57%.