MPC breaks below key technical support level
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MPC finished the week 6.66% higher at 58.33 after losing $1.17 (-1.97%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MPC as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.85 (3.11%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.59. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MPC.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 59.24 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 58.31 in the previous session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 58.05. The last time this happened on February 4th, MPC gained 4.03% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 55.33.
Marathon Petroleum shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Marathon Petroleum. Out of 213 times, MPC closed higher 56.34% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.81% with an average market move of 0.59%.