MOS closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Mosaic Company (MOS) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MOS finished the week 14.68% higher at 11.56 after edging higher $0.01 (0.09%) today on low volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MOS as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.26 (2.27%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.66. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MOS. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 11.18 and 11.92 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
After having been unable to move lower than 11.41 in the previous session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 11.43. The last time this happened on Tuesday, MOS gained 6.26% on the following trading day.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 11.92 where further buy stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to May's high at 12.57, upside momentum could accelerate should the market mark new highs for the month.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Mosaic. Out of 694 times, MOS closed higher 52.02% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 52.59% with an average market move of 0.14%.