MOS unable to break through key resistance level
Mosaic Company (MOS) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MOS ended Thursday at 10.72 edging lower $0.15 (-1.38%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Trading $0.72 higher after the open, Mosaic was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, MOS actually gained 16.05% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MOS as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.21 (11.04%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.32. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for MOS. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 9.76 and 11.68 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Regardless of a strong opening the stock closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 11.03 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 11.68 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
While the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Mosaic. Out of 392 times, MOS closed lower 57.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.30% with an average market move of -0.71%.