MOS unable to break through key resistance level
Mosaic Company (MOS) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, MOS finished the week -7.46% lower at 18.74 after losing $0.74 (-3.8%) today on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.29 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Wednesday, MOS lost -4.28% on the following trading day. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MOS as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.74 (3.87%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.73. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MOS.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 18.37 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 19.28 (R1), the stock closed below it after spiking up to 19.39 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 18.24, downside momentum could accelerate should Mosaic break out to new lows for the year. Trading close to December's low at 17.66 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Mosaic. Out of 388 times, MOS closed lower 57.99% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.80% with an average market move of -0.48%.