MOS pops to highest close since August 8th
Mosaic Company (MOS) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MOS ended the week 15.92% higher at 22.65 after gaining $0.67 (3.05%) today, notably outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.07%). Today's close at 22.65 marks the highest recorded closing price since August 8th. Closing above Thursday's high at 22.33, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.83 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MOS as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.27 (5.74%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.72. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MOS.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 22.16 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on Monday, MOS gained 5.95% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 23.16 during the day, Mosaic found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 22.65.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 19.43.
Although the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Mosaic. Out of 134 times, MOS closed lower 60.45% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.45% with an average market move of -1.48%.