MOS closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Mosaic Company (MOS) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MOS ended Tuesday at 26.84 gaining $0.21 (0.79%), outperforming the S&P 500 (0.05%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MOS as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.26 (0.97%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.61. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for MOS.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
After having been unable to move lower than 26.61 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 26.67. The last time this happened on April 8th, MOS actually lost -1.47% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 27.23 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 26.42 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 25.95, downside momentum might accelerate should Mosaic break out to new lows for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Mosaic. Out of 731 times, MOS closed higher 53.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 51.16% with an average market move of 0.11%.