MO tumbles, losing $1.02 (-2.38%) within a single day
Altria Group Inc. (MO) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MO ended Wednesday at 41.76 tanking $1.02 (-2.38%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two months. Today's close at 41.76 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 6th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 42.71, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.97 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MO as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.17 (2.73%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.86. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MO.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The stock closed below the 200-day moving average at 42.72 for the first time since August 17th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on August 12th, MO lost -0.91% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 43.39.
Though the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test August's close-by low at 40.67.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Altria Group. Out of 79 times, MO closed higher 58.23% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.03% with an average market move of 0.76%.