MO breaks below Thursday's low
Altria Group Inc. (MO) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MO finished the month 4.84% higher at 41.15 after losing $0.43 (-1.03%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing below Thursday's low at 41.18, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.51 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MO as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.89 (2.15%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.94. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MO.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading as low as 40.67 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 40.97. The last time this happened on July 26, 2019, MO gained 0.90% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 41.75 (R1).
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 40.51 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Altria Group. Out of 45 times, MO closed higher 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.44% with an average market move of 0.35%.