MGR.AX closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Mirvac Ltd (MGR.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MGR.AX finished the week -4.27% lower at 2.24 after tanking $0.06 (-2.61%) today. This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. Today's close at 2.24 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 17th. Trading $0.04 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MGR.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.05 (2.22%), that's far above last trading month's daily average range of $0.03. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the markets average with the monthly volatility being way above average.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Closing Marubozu.
After spiking up to 2.29 during the day, the market found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 2.26.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since October 1st, prices have reached an unusually low price in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential turning point back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 2.38 or signal a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time this happened on October 1st, MGR.AX lost -1.69% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term. Mirvac Ltd broke below the 200-day moving average at 2.26 today for the first time since June 5th.
Among the 12 market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stands out. Although it is usually interpreted being bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish so far in the past for Mirvac Ltd. Out of 48 times during the last ten years, MGR.AX closed higher 52.08% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.67% with an average market move of 1.65%.