MFG.AX finds support at 100-day moving average
Magellan Fin Group Limited (MFG.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MFG.AX finished the week 15.03% higher at 26.48 after losing $0.65 (-2.4%) today on low volume, significantly underperforming the ASX 200 (-0.36%). Closing below Thursday's low at 26.58, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.27 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MFG.AX as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.60 (2.24%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.74. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for MFG.AX.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 26.31 during the day, the share found support at the 100-day moving average at 26.47. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 27.06 (R1).
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 24.43. The last time this happened on October 8, 2018, MFG.AX lost -1.66% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Magellan Fin. Out of 108 times, MFG.AX closed higher 52.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.74% with an average market move of 3.29%.