MC closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Moelis & Company Class A (MC) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 8th day in a row, MC finished the month -4.4% lower at 29.79 after losing $0.05 (-0.17%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MC as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.56 (1.87%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.97. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for MC.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Takuri Line which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Takuri Line showed up on Wednesday, MC actually lost -1.45% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 30.33 (R1).
While the stock is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 30.90 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 28.77 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to July's low at 28.28, downside momentum could speed up should the share mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Takuri Line" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Moelis &. Out of 34 times, MC closed lower 64.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 55.88% with an average market move of -0.27%.