MAS drops to lowest close since December 4, 2019
Masco Corporation (MAS) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, MAS finished the week -6.56% lower at 45.61 after losing $0.88 (-1.89%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 45.61 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 4, 2019. Closing below Thursday's low at 46.21, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.83 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MAS as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.07 (2.31%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.99. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for MAS.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The market closed below the 100-day moving average at 46.09 for the first time since August 23, 2019. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on August 23, 2019, MAS actually gained 1.94% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 48.42.
Though Masco is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 45.15 where further sell stops could get activated. Trading close to December's low at 45.01 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Masco. Out of 116 times, MAS closed higher 61.21% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.07% with an average market move of 1.08%.