MAR breaks below Thursday's low
Marriott International (MAR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, MAR ended the week 0.58% higher at 144.90 after losing $1.82 (-1.24%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.29%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 146.66, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $2.69 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MAR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.38 (2.3%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.68. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MAR.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 143.97 during the day, Marriott International found support at the 20-day moving average at 144.61. The last time this happened on November 21, 2019, MAR gained 2.46% on the following trading day. The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 146.22 for the first time since February 7th.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 142.45 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to February's low at 140.87, downside momentum might accelerate should the stock mark new lows for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Marriott International. Out of 358 times, MAR closed higher 56.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.61% with an average market move of 0.90%.