MAR slips to lowest close since October 24th
Marriott International (MAR) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MAR finished the week -3.29% lower at 111.25 after tanking $4.07 (-3.53%) today, slightly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-3.3%) following today's NFP report. Today's close at 111.25 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 24th. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MAR as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $5.55 (4.83%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.08. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MAR.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 115.80 (R2), the share closed below it after spiking up to 116.25 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 111.11 in the prior session, Marriott International found buyers again around the same price level today at 110.70. The last time this happened on November 23rd, MAR gained 2.25% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since October 11th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 117.19 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 106.96, downside momentum might speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Marriott International. Out of 114 times, MAR closed higher 57.02% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.54% with an average market move of 1.57%.