MAA breaks below 200-day moving average for the first time since December 13, 2017
Mid-America Apartments (MAA) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, MAA finished the week -3.7% lower at 94.61 after losing $1.18 (-1.23%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 94.61 marks the lowest recorded closing price since June 1st. Closing below Thursday's low at 95.58, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.56 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MAA as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $2.16 (2.26%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.67. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for MAA.
The market broke below the 200-day moving average at 95.23 today for the first time since December 13, 2017. When this moving average was violated the last time on December 13, 2017, MAA lost -0.12% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 99.84.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Mid-America Apartments. Out of 132 times, MAA closed higher 53.79% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.85% with an average market move of 0.62%.