MA breaks back below 50-day moving average
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MA finished the week -2.27% lower at 196.50 after losing $6.49 (-3.2%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MA as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $11.62 (5.7%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $6.66. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for MA.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Black Candle and the Dark Cloud Cover which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 194.29 (S1). The share closed back below the 50-day moving average at 202.26. After having been unable to move lower than 194.22 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 194.90. The last time this happened on November 30th, MA gained 4.37% on the following trading day.
While Mastercard Incorporated is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 194.22 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Mastercard Incorporated. Out of 13 times, MA closed higher 61.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.23% with an average market move of 2.32%.