MA breaks back below 100-day moving average
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 09, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MA ended the week 4.0% higher at 205.62 after losing $3.24 (-1.55%) today on low volume, underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.92%). Closing below Thursday's low at 206.00, Mastercard Incorporated confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $2.58 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MA as at Nov 09, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $4.56 (2.2%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $6.12. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for MA.
After trading down to 203.42 earlier during the day, the stock bounced off the key technical support level at 204.66 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on Monday, MA gained 0.59% on the following trading day. The market closed back below the 100-day moving average at 206.55. The share ran into sellers again today around 207.98 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 208.86 in the prior session and at 208.38 two days ago.
MA shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 208.86 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Mastercard Incorporated. Out of 385 times, MA closed higher 57.92% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.01% with an average market move of 1.70%.