M runs into sellers again around 5.46
Macy's Inc (M) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
M ended the week -1.88% lower at 5.21 after losing $0.16 (-2.98%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading $0.14 higher after the open, Macy's was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, M lost -6.46% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (M as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.33 (6.2%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.42. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for M.
After moving higher in the prior session, the market closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
The share closed back below the 20-day moving average at 5.32. After having been unable to move above 5.44 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 5.46.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 5.70 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 4.91 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 4.38, downside momentum could speed up should M break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to May's high at 5.75, upside momentum might accelerate should Macy's mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Macy's. Out of 737 times, M closed higher 53.19% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.24% with an average market move of 0.04%.