M surges, gaining $1.24 (3.86%) within a single day
Macy's Inc. (M) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
M ended the week 1.68% higher at 33.38 after surging $1.24 (3.86%) today, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on August 14th, M actually lost -15.95% on the following trading day. Today's close at 33.38 marks the highest recorded closing price since October 3rd. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (M as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.22 (3.72%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.03. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for M. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 31.89 and 33.95 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Macy's Inc. managed to break above the 200-day moving average at 32.60 today for the first time since December 1, 2017. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 33.95 (R1). After having been unable to move above 33.95 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 33.86.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 33.95 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Macy's Inc.. Out of 535 times, M closed higher 51.03% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.13% with an average market move of 1.26%.