KSS runs into sellers again around 65.78
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
KSS finished the week -6.98% lower at 62.48 after losing $3.15 (-4.8%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Today's close at 62.48 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 23rd. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 63.63, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.38 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (KSS as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $3.53 (5.4%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.79. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for KSS.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on Monday, KSS lost -4.59% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 62.03 (S1). After having been unable to move above 65.73 in the prior session, Kohl's ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 65.78.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test November's nearby low at 62.03.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Kohl's. Out of 254 times, KSS closed higher 53.94% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.66% with an average market move of 1.15%.