KMPR closes within prior day's range
Kemper Corporation (KMPR) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, KMPR finished Thursday at 73.66 gaining $3.18 (4.51%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (KMPR as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $4.31 (6.08%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.50. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for KMPR.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on Tuesday, KMPR gained 6.61% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 74.38 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 74.56 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move above 74.07 in the prior session, Kemper ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 74.56.
The stock shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 74.92 where further buy stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 81.66, upside momentum could accelerate should the share be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to March's high at 78.58, upside momentum might speed up should KMPR mark new highs for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Kemper. Out of 760 times, KMPR closed higher 51.97% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.55% with an average market move of 0.66%.