KIM misses to close above 20-day moving average
Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
KIM finished Thursday at 12.76 losing $0.15 (-1.16%) on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.45%) ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 12.89, Kimco Realty confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.16 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (KIM as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.73 (5.48%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.74. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for KIM.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on June 19th, KIM actually gained 2.67% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 12.38 (S1). After spiking up to 13.46 during the day, the stock found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 13.44. After having been unable to move above 13.40 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 13.46.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 13.54 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 12.38 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Kimco Realty. Out of 544 times, KIM closed higher 55.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.68% with an average market move of 0.62%.