KEY finds buyers again around 16.63
KeyCorp (KEY) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, KEY ended the week -8.78% lower at 16.73 after losing $0.38 (-2.22%) today, but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Today's close at 16.73 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 24th. Trading $0.26 higher after the open, KeyCorp was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (KEY as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.73 (4.27%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.50. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for KEY.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on November 19th, KEY lost -2.35% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 16.48 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 16.69 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 16.63.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 18.13.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 16.48, downside momentum might accelerate should the share break out to new lows for the year.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for KeyCorp. Out of 138 times, KEY closed higher 65.94% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.22% with an average market move of 2.35%.