JHX.AX ends the day indecisive
James Hardie (JHX.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, JHX.AX finished the week -4.24% lower at 19.21 after losing $0.19 (-0.98%) today on high volume. Today's close at 19.21 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 8, 2017. Trading $0.14 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JHX.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.36 (1.87%), that's slightly above last trading month's daily average range of $0.34. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the markets average with the monthly volatility being way above average.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After having been unable to move above 19.41 in the previous session, James Hardie ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 19.39. The last time this happened on October 2nd, JHX.AX lost -0.83% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 20.50.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stands out. It's common interpretation of being bullish has so far been confirmed for James Hardie in the past. Out of 141 times during the last ten years, JHX.AX closed higher 54.61% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.50% with an average market move of 3.10%.