JEF closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
JEF ended Wednesday at 18.00 surging $0.81 (4.71%) on high volume, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over two months. Trading up to $0.25 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JEF as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.71 (3.99%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.45. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JEF.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
The stock managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 17.42. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on Monday, JEF actually lost -1.66% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 18.21 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 18.26 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
As prices are trading close to September's high at 18.39, upside momentum could speed up should Jefferies Financial mark new highs for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Jefferies Financial. Out of 41 times, JEF closed lower 51.22% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.54% with an average market move of -1.09%.