JEF closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
JEF ended the week 6.38% higher at 20.33 after edging lower $0.04 (-0.2%) today on high volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.07%). Trading $0.18 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on September 4th, JEF actually gained 2.31% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JEF as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.53 (2.57%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.40. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for JEF.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 19.98 (S1).
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 18.95.
The share shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Jefferies Financial. Out of 68 times, JEF closed higher 50.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.35% with an average market move of 1.10%.