JCI still stuck within tight trading range
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, JCI ended the week 3.76% higher at 29.53 after edging higher $0.12 (0.41%) today on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading up to $0.33 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JCI as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.48 (1.63%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.04. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JCI. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 28.58 and 30.08 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
After having been unable to move above 29.54 in the previous session, Johnson Controls ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 29.56. The last time this happened on May 15th, JCI actually gained 3.76% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 30.08 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 28.58 where further sell stops might get activated. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test April's nearby high at 31.34.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Johnson Controls. Out of 765 times, JCI closed higher 51.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.82% with an average market move of 0.59%.