JCI runs into sellers again around 34.32
Johnson Controls (JCI) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, JCI ended the week -9.23% lower at 32.96 after losing $0.77 (-2.28%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 32.96 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 22, 2016. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 33.59, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.24 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JCI as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.97 (5.74%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.70. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for JCI.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
After having been unable to move above 34.47 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 34.32. The last time this happened on Tuesday, JCI lost -2.29% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 35.78.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Johnson Controls. Out of 57 times, JCI closed higher 50.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.18% with an average market move of 4.49%.