IP drops to lowest close since January 17th
International Paper Company (IP) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, IP ended the week -0.57% lower at 45.51 after tanking $1.45 (-3.09%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.5%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two months. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on December 24, 2018, IP actually gained 5.48% on the following trading day. Today's close at 45.51 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 17th. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (IP as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.51 (3.25%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.87. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for IP.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 45.13 (S1). The stock closed below the 50-day moving average at 45.92 for the first time since January 9th.
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 45.13 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to March's low at 45.11, downside momentum could accelerate should International Paper mark new lows for the month.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for International Paper. Out of 156 times, IP closed higher 57.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.21% with an average market move of 1.53%.