INCY falls to lowest close since January 23rd
Incyte Corporation (INCY) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, INCY ended Tuesday at 76.98 losing $1.17 (-1.5%), notably underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.34%). Today's close at 76.98 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 23rd. Closing below Monday's low at 77.63, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.89 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (INCY as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.52 (3.21%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.11. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for INCY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 76.74 during the day, the market found support at the 100-day moving average at 76.93. The last time this happened on September 10, 2018, INCY actually lost -2.31% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 84.04.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Incyte. Out of 22 times, INCY closed lower 63.64% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 72.73% with an average market move of -0.09%.