ILMN closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Illumina Inc. (ILMN) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, ILMN ended Wednesday at 322.47 tanking $29.72 (-8.44%) on high volume, notably underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-1.67%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. Today's close at 322.47 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 12th. Trading $21.48 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Tuesday's low at 351.35, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $31.00 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ILMN as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $56.32 (15.86%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $11.98. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ILMN.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The share closed below the 200-day moving average at 326.37 for the first time since April 15th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on January 29th, ILMN lost -5.52% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since August 12th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 349.52 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the 16 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Illumina. Out of 131 times, ILMN closed higher 55.73% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.18% with an average market move of 2.12%.